Labour pains

Several hours ago, the Labour Party voted to join the next Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Leiberman. Along with the Shas party Netanyahu now has a 66 seat government.

I'm not sure if this good or bad news--for Israel, the Likud Party and Netanyahu, the Labour Party and Ehud Barak, Ofer Eini (the Chair of the Histadrut [Workers' Organization], the Kadima Party and Tzippi Livni. Does a 66 seat government of four parties mean a more stable government, one that will last the four year term, or a short-term bandage solution and they'll be another set of elections in less than a year?

The best part of forming a new government, is that the old one will resign. Olmert will vacate the PM residence and have his day in court which could make his search for a new residence easier if he's sent to jail.

As Mazal Mualem reports in Haaretz , the Labour vote was a contentious one. While 78% of the committee members voted, only 54% voted in favour of joining the government. It's still possible that the 'dissenters' would break away from the party. If that happens, it'll be the death knell for the party. Then, there's the issue that initially Barak was adamant that the Labour voter wanted them to sit in the opposition, and then he flip-flopped to now suggest ahead of the vote:

Ahead of the vote, Barak took the stand and in an impassioned speech said "we are responsible for the Labor Party, but we also have a responsibility to the state of Israel, to peace, to security. We don't have a back-up country, Yitzhak Rabin said that, and it is still true."

"Labor voters want to see us in the government, they want to see us there because we don't have a spare country".

What makes the issue even more incredible is that Netanyahu made Labour [read Barak] an offer he couldn't refuse.

For its 13 seats, Labour was offered/given:

• five cabinet posts, including two of the most senior - Defense Minister and Trade and Industry Minister - and another two deputy ministerial positions.
• in the socio-economic area (the bone for Ofer Eini)

there's NIS 100 million for retraining people for different professions, NIS 200 million for funding day and afternoon care for working women's children, investment in factories and a commitment not to cut salaries in the public sector. Furthermore, the deal promises a gradual hike in benefits for pensioners over the coming three years totaling NIS 950 million (this subject actually appeared in a similar deal between Labor and Kadima last year that was never signed), and a series of other agreements.

The deal's masterpiece is the creation of a forum that the government, employers and the Histadrut will all attend and will have the status of an advisor to the prime minister.

The great deal for Labour means that Likud and its leaders--those expecting a high level cabinet post--will pay the price. Will this mean another round of Bibi alienating his own party and core constituency?

The sense I have is that Bibi thinks people voted for him to be the PM (a la the direct elections for PM of 1996 [Bibi > Peres] and 1998 [Barak > Bibi]) with the result that he formed a government by giving away the store to the other parties while leaving his party out in the cold (not, that Likud had a large number of seats to speak about). The fact of the matter is that Kadima actually polled a larger number of seats [28] to Likud's 27.

In other news, here's what the other coalition partners are expected to receive.

First, let's deal with Shas.

On Monday, a coalition agreement was signed (after an informal agreement was made earlier this year which prevented Tzippi Livni from forming a government and forcing an election) which gives Shas

• four portfolios in the new government.

Party chief Eli Yishai will become interior minister and deputy prime minister, MK Ariel Atias will become minister of housing, Yitzhak Cohen will receive the new government's religion portfolio and Meshulam Nahari will become a minister-without-portfolio in the Prime Minister's Office.

• Shas was also promised an increase of NIS 1.4 billion in child welfare payments over the next three years.
• billions of shekels to yeshivas, while depriving Bedouin families of child allowances.
• a compromise on the ultra-Orthodox party's demand for the education portfolio and on the appointment of an exclusive minister for ultra-Orthodox education in the next government.

Still to determined are the places for Bayit Hayehudi (NRP), National Union/Ichud Haleumi and UTJ. Negotiations continue with all three parties.

Underlying the stability of the government is how it deals with religion-state affairs. Issues like civil union, conversion are flash points for both the religious and secular parties. While the UTJ has agreed to civil unions, they are only willing to have it for non-Jewish couples. There's no movement regarding conversions. I'm not sure how the "Jewish" (if only in their own mind) voters for Leiberman--former USSR--and Ethiopian feel about this. Then there are non-Orthodox and secular Jews who feel strongly about not relying on the Rabbinate to approve or perform their weddings/marriages.

Finally, there's Tzippi Livni and Kadima. Did she miss her chance to create a true national unity government, by holding out for a PM rotation? Will she be able to build up the party in opposition enough to actually win the next election? If there's an election in the next year, she may be able to have another shot at becoming PM. If the government lasts the four years, she may have missed the boat.

In terms of Israel, I continue to believe that the cobbled together coalition with smaller parties, is bad for Israel. The voter threshold needs to be increased and some form of direct elections for members of Knesset are needed. As long as sectarian parties are part of the government, any meaningful reform isn't going to happen.

Then there's the issue of the size of the cabinet. Instead of streamlining and reducing the number of cabinet members, it looks like it'll be another bloated and overcrowded cabinet table. While it's inefficient in the best of times, in an economic slowdown, monies would be better spent on improving the lot of ALL Israelis, it'll instead be dedicated, really wasted, in providing "the perks of office" to a bunch of politicians (many of whom, are less than qualified to serve as anything in government). Oh well...

Too bad.

Stay tuned for further developments.

1,000 days and counting

Today is the 1,001st day of captivity for Gilad Shalit. His family closed down its protest test just before Shabbat and returned home in the Galil.

Supposedly, the government has spent the last (nearly) three years actively seeking the return of Gilad as well as the two soldiers captured by Hezbollah (Udi Regev z"l and Eldad Goldwasser z"l). Now that the government of Ehud Olmert is actually in its final days--Benjamin Netanyahu just received a 14 day extension to form his coalition government--he's placed the negotiations into overdrive. For the last few weeks the discussions with Hamas under Egyptian auspices have been active. It's all in an effort to resolve the issue before Olmert leaves the stage.

Why it's taken so long to actively work for his release suggests that Israel had it on a very low burner--if not totally off the stove. Now that Olmert's time is drawing to a close, his [Olmert] concern for his legacy has pushed him to actually get the ball rolling.

Yet, success remains elusive. Despite media reports since the last election that an agreement is imminent, nothing has happened.

In the meantime, it seems that Hamas has been upping its demands of who it wants released and refusing to accept Israel's demands that some released prisoners be sent into exile (not permitted to live in either Gaza or the West Bank). Israel has stood firm regarding the list of releasees and conditions of release.

In the background unity talks between Fatah (W Bank) and Hamas (Gaza) are continuing (in some form).

When I visited the protest tent last week, across the street was a counter protest against releasing prisoners "with blood on their hands" (i.e. convicted of murder/terrorism). While I certainly understand their position--the last prisoner exchange gave Israel two bodies for a large number of Palestinian/Lebanese terrorists, including the someone who murdered a child on the Nehariya beach--and their concern that once released they'll immediately return to their terrorist activities (against Israel).

I'm not sure that Israel has much choice in the matter. They need to release convicted terrorist murderers to get Gilad Shalit back. Israel must do everyone to return its captured (and dead) soldiers. I only hope that Shalit is still alive. If not, the price is too steep for a coffin.

Stay tuned...please god Gilad will be home for Pesach.

Justice is done

It appears that there is agreement on who will serve as the Justice Minister in the Netanyahu government. (Prof) Yaakov Neeman has, supposedly, accepted the position. That's one down, who knows how many more (cabinet positions) to go.

That Daniel Friedmann will end his term, I believe is good news. Despite whatever qualifications he holds to serve as justice minister and his opinions/positions, his support by Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beitenu) a suspect in an ongoing criminal investigation made his suitability also suspect. I'm not sure that his commitment to stay out of the way of police investigations of politicians--Ehud Olmert, Lieberman, ...--was enough to convince me he was appropriate in the first place. The JM (justice minister) needs to actively advocate cleaner politics and government ethics (free of corruption), a more efficient judicial system (reforming the Rabbinical Courts as well as the criminal/civil courts) and somehow reform the Supreme Court without exacerbating the extremism on both sides (the anti-Court [religious groups, right-wingers] and the pro-Court [leftists who use the court as a way to challenge the Knesset laws and army rulings, and supporters of Aharon Barak's judicial philosophy]. Politicizing the judicial system--making it more accountable and determined by the elected political structure--may sound good on paper, however, in light of (i) a broken electoral system and (ii) a Knesset that responds to special interests over national (rational, apolitical) policy, means that the High Court frequently becomes the court of last resort for enacting public policy. It's not a pretty site and requires a lot of attention to correct. The next JM needs to be committed to push a strong but sophisticated agenda to clean up the system by convincing all the "stakeholders" that change is necessary and establishing a workable consensus to enact the changes.

In other news, coalition building is inching along. It appears that Yisrael Beitenu has signed a coalition agreement which makes Leiberman the foreign minister and gives it four other cabinet posts (internal security, tourism, infrastructure and immigrant absorption portfolios), as well as chairmanship of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee. Lost in the negotiations were many of the issues it had championed during its campaign, including civil unions, a solution to Jewish conversion problems and changes in the system of government and the electoral system.

In light of intensification of the police investigation of Lieberman , I wonder how long the deal will hold. Additionally, supposedly, the agreement with Netanyahu is to include a clause saying that it is valid only for a narrow government, the expansion of which would necessitate a new arrangement.

How this will play out with the other potential partners; the haredi parties (especially Shas), the right-wing parties and creating a national unity government with Kadima and/or Labour only time will tell. The deadline for creating a government is 3 April. I doubt the government will go against conventional wisdom. It'll be a right-leaning government with Shas.

Nothing changes except the head

Last Wednesday, Israel observed "Family Day" (commemorating Henrietta Szold's birthday) and the official opening of the 18th Knesset. While there's no connection between the two events and there's not even a new government in place, life goes on and we're all family.

The formation of the government is going to be an "interesting ride". Currently, the two "large parties" -- Kadima and Labour-- are refusing to join the government and Netanyahu has been unable to get their decision reversed. For Labour, I think its a given that there's little opposition to the Ehud Barak's position. The same can't be said for Tzippi Livni and Kadima. Here, there are some voices, particularly Shaul Mofaz, who want the party to join the government. Hopefully, those voices will be overruled and Kadima will set in opposition.

The only way I could see a true national unity government put in place is, if Netanyahu agrees to have only the three old-style large parties be in the coalition and commits himself to: (a) rotate the PM chair, (b) reform the electoral system and (c) agrees to a specific time period of governing--say three years--before calling a new election with the new rules in place. It doesn't seem in the realm of possibility, never mind probability, at this time.

Netanyahu has made too many promises/commitments to other parties, especially Shas to get himself elected as the head of a right-wing political bloc. He's also interested in establishing a wide government/coalition (i.e., significantly bigger than the needed 61 seat majority). And, then there are the ego issues.

The bottom line is:

• An expensive government from paying off all the small(er) parties to join the coalition -- the 'real' right-wingers, the religious parties and Avigdor Lieberman.
• It'll be short-lived. I expect there'll be new election within 18 months.
• A government alienated from the international community, which will make it difficult for Israel to advance its international agenda--containing Hamas (in the Gaza) and Iran's nuclear ambitions and capabilities.
• Another ineffectual government in addressing its pressing issues--economic, social and environmental. It'll be difficult, if not impossible, to set and maintain a clear policy/priorities course of action as each party will demand (and expect) veto power over areas/decisions deemed detrimental to their cause/interest/population (or perceived electorate).

It's SOS [Same Old Shit/Stuff] all over again.