Nothing changes except the head

Last Wednesday, Israel observed "Family Day" (commemorating Henrietta Szold's birthday) and the official opening of the 18th Knesset. While there's no connection between the two events and there's not even a new government in place, life goes on and we're all family.

The formation of the government is going to be an "interesting ride". Currently, the two "large parties" -- Kadima and Labour-- are refusing to join the government and Netanyahu has been unable to get their decision reversed. For Labour, I think its a given that there's little opposition to the Ehud Barak's position. The same can't be said for Tzippi Livni and Kadima. Here, there are some voices, particularly Shaul Mofaz, who want the party to join the government. Hopefully, those voices will be overruled and Kadima will set in opposition.

The only way I could see a true national unity government put in place is, if Netanyahu agrees to have only the three old-style large parties be in the coalition and commits himself to: (a) rotate the PM chair, (b) reform the electoral system and (c) agrees to a specific time period of governing--say three years--before calling a new election with the new rules in place. It doesn't seem in the realm of possibility, never mind probability, at this time.

Netanyahu has made too many promises/commitments to other parties, especially Shas to get himself elected as the head of a right-wing political bloc. He's also interested in establishing a wide government/coalition (i.e., significantly bigger than the needed 61 seat majority). And, then there are the ego issues.

The bottom line is:

• An expensive government from paying off all the small(er) parties to join the coalition -- the 'real' right-wingers, the religious parties and Avigdor Lieberman.
• It'll be short-lived. I expect there'll be new election within 18 months.
• A government alienated from the international community, which will make it difficult for Israel to advance its international agenda--containing Hamas (in the Gaza) and Iran's nuclear ambitions and capabilities.
• Another ineffectual government in addressing its pressing issues--economic, social and environmental. It'll be difficult, if not impossible, to set and maintain a clear policy/priorities course of action as each party will demand (and expect) veto power over areas/decisions deemed detrimental to their cause/interest/population (or perceived electorate).

It's SOS [Same Old Shit/Stuff] all over again.