The fog of war

Beyond the usual 'fog of war' the confusion and lack of real time and accurate information about is actually occurring in the battles, the Israel-Palestinian/Arab conflict seems to add an additional sheet of fog.

People view the conflict through a specific ideological lens (=fog). Few, if any, seem able or willing to approach the issue 'objectively' evaluating the situation without preconditions or assumptions. All too often, there are knee jerk reactions especially as it relates to Israel's actions. People's "minds are already made up, they don't want to become confused with the 'facts'".

Protests seem de rigour in the Arab countries. Sponsored (encouraged at minimum) by the government to publicly demonstrate their support of the Palestinian cause (without having to do anything concrete like financially support their [the Palestinian] economy and social needs). I get the sense that Israel seems a convenient whipping post to deflect criticism of the regime and a way to promote their call (not generally considered politically correct) for the destruction of the State of Israel.

Israel--post 1967--no longer is seen as a victim of Arab/Palestinian aggression. That Israelis suffer under constant bombings or terrorist attacks (like suicide bombings) with minimal (less than 100's of deaths) seems unworthy of comment. On the contrary, it's the result of their [Israel] "occupation" of Gaza (which it officially--de jure and de facto--disengaged its presence) and the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) and the building of settlements. For me, the left (including some in Israel), the non-aligned countries and the Islamic world have joined forces to protest each and every Israeli action.

That Egypt has 'failed' to fall into lock step with the other Arab countries, has made it a target for tremendous criticism -- betraying the Arab cause and engaging in "treason". There's no such thing as an honest broker, it's either "us" or "them" (a la the George W Bush world view).

How to cut through the fog?

First, we must recognized its complexity and lack of a simple solution. Benny Morris' op-ed piece in the New York Times on 30 Dec 2008 is a start.

Next, biases must be disclosed (if that's actually possible).

Equity without moral equivalences must be the rule. Both sides need to have their feet put to the fire. The comments of the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon yesterday (29.Dec.2008) is a start.

“While recognizing Israel’s security concerns regarding the continued firing of rockets from Gaza, he firmly reiterates Israel’s obligation to uphold international humanitarian and human rights law and condemns excessive use of force leading to the killing and injuring of civilians, ... condemns the ongoing rocket attacks by Palestinian militants and is deeply distressed that repeated calls on Hamas for these attacks to end have gone unheeded"

As was his statement of 24.Dec.2006 calling on Hamas to cease its rocket attacks on Israel.

“The Secretary-General is gravely concerned about the situation in Gaza and southern Israel and the potential for further violence and civilian suffering if calm is not restored,” a statement issued by his spokesperson said. “He condemns today's rocket attacks on southern Israel.”

What influence this will have on UN deliberations--in the General Assembly and especially within the Security Council--is anyone's guess.

In the meantime, some fog lights are being shined on the issue. Hopefully, it'll start to cut through the ideological fog too.

Return Fire

This morning Israel launched a military response to the years of Hamas (Palestinian) rocket attacks which were recently intensified upon the residents of southern Israel (cross to the Gaza border). It was a long time in coming and hopefully will be short lived in duration.

I do have several questions about this military operation:

1. What's the goal -- destroy the Hamas infrastructure and its governance of Gaza, (forcing the) returning Gilad Shalit, creating a demilitarized zone in Gaza, securing a period of quiet for previously shelled southern Israeli communities ...?
2. Is this a one time event or the start of a regular/occasional pattern of incursions in Gaza to quiet down the terrorist activities/rocket attacks?
3. How will international reaction (condemnation) be addressed?
4. How will the international PR/"propaganda" campaign be implemented, particularly in counteracting the Hamas/Arab propaganda campaign, especially when Israel bombs a heavily populated civilian site.
5. How will civilian casualties ("collateral damage") be minimized?

How much of this situation is attributable to the withdrawal from Gaza Ariel Sharon pushed through three summers ago? While the idea was a good one--Israel/Jews were settled in a massive Arab/Palestinian area (that not even the Egypt wanted to have despite its 'occupation' from 1948 - 1967)--it was poorly executed. Rather than being a planful event, ensure that the displaced residents had a place to go to easily start its life over, negotiate a real understanding with the Palestinian Authority that the vacated structures would be used for good instead of being thoughtlessly and wantonly vandalized/destroyed and that the border with southern Israel would remain quiet.

• Three years on, the evacuees remain destitute and there is no quiet or comfort along the southern border with Gaza.
• Gilad Shalit remains a prisoner of Hamas (though not necessarily the same faction that's governing Gaza).
• The people of Sderot and the surrounding kibbutzim and other communities including those further north can expect more rocket attacks in the coming days in response to Israel's incursion/operation against Hamas.

Will the cycle of violence end or is this yet another nail in the coffin?

Primary Colors -- II

With last night's Kadima party's primary, the primary season I think is now over. The rest of the parties will announce their lists shortly.

According to recent poll published in Haaretz, the gap between Kadima and Likud is narrowing. Not explained is if this is due to the finalizing of the lists, the loss of the elan of Likud/Netanyahu, the positive impression of Tzippi Livni from a joint appearance of all three leaders at a business forum earlier this week, or if it's really significant. My own sense is that people are dissatisfied with the entire political system [see the feedback] and especially with the leaders of the major parties. I expect a low turnout (<40%) on election day and those who actually come to the polls will either be die hard party people or those who feel an obligation to vote as a civic duty (mostly Western people) and will hold their nose to vote for the least worst option -- which one is less of a crook/incompetent fool--and will do the least damage to Israel.

Lost in most of the bickering and cross incrimination's is a real discussion of what kind of country people want, were we want to be and how we can best get there. This morning on Reshet B, on Karen Noybach's "Daily Agenda" program, sought to have a discussion about party advertising campaign and the need to modernize it, only to have it degenerate into a partisan bickering match about how only their party will "'rescue" Israel. It wasn't time that some politician hijacked a discussion to make a partisan point at the expense of thoughtful informative discussion.

Ponzi returns

The effects of the Bernard L Madoff "ponzi scheme" continues to ripple through the financial and especially the Jewish (philanthropic) world. At last count, two family philanthropic foundations (Chais and the RL Lappin) have closed their doors due to extensive losses. Others are hurting and will feel forced to cut back on their grants. Then there are the numerous investment firms who lost their investments. According to Madoff's own estimates, losses total $50 billion. It seems that closer you were to him, the harder you were hurt. Exposure to him and his investment services [sic] was radioactive and poisonous.

While I trust a lot of people are currently hurting--the loss of retirement nest eggs, loss of personal value--my sympathies are tempered by (a) how people continue to believe in "something too good to be true" (e.g. 10% return when the market is either lower or in decline) and the (b) innocent people who are going to suffer in the future because the brazen greediness of investors (e.g. potential recipients of philanthropic funds, individuals who 'parked' their savings with a trusted financial advisor who in turn turned over the funds to Madoff).

There are no winners in this situation. The $50 billion is mostly unrecoverable since it was used to pay off earlier investors. Whatever good may have arisen from the money is gone forever. Madoff will receive some kind of prison sentence, but I doubt it will assuage anyone's anger and sense of being violated. The sense of underlying sense of trust between friends and between business partners is also gone. It'll take a little while for a healthy equilibrium to return.

Israeli nismanagement

NIS is for New Israeli Shekel.

Four news items caught my attention today:

1. Israel approved transferring 100,000 NIS to Gaza (Hamas leadership) due to its cash flow problems.
2. Holocaust restitution fund spends NIS 30m of survivors' money on itself.
3. Diplomats ordered to cut costs by flying coach class.
4. The Israeli economy has stopped growing.

While it was thought that Israel would escape the effects of the global economic downturn, in large part the result of an earlier bank and financial overhaul, it's clear that all economies connected to the global economic community and especially the American economy will suffer. The credit crunch has come to Israel.

The idea that Israel would be willing to transfer funds to pay the salaries of the Hamas bureaucracy especially in light of its diplomatic and economic embargo/closure is mind boggling. I thought the goal was to pressure Hamas and the Gaza people to end its existence and return political authority to the Palestinian Authority (Abbas). While withholding humanitarian aid--food, fuel and medical supplies--is verboten, how can Israel justify supporting a government that it deems illegitimate. A political entity that (a) continues to hold Gilad Shalit (nearly 900 days!) without allowing anyone to see him and verify his life status and (b) continues to bomb southern Israel (from Sedrot to the Ashkelon/Kiryat Gat area). What was Ehud Barak (Minister of Defence and Chair of the Labour Party) thinking? Both issues require resolution before even one agura is sent to Hamas. Gilat Shalit must be returned to Israel immediately and if Hamas is genuinely interested in peace the bombing must stop. If not, Israel should (a) withhold all funds and (b) plan for a quick military strike against Hamas strongholds and its leadership.

Government at its worst is at play with the other two issues. That diplomats (vice deputy directors right now) have the right to fly business or first class is beyond me. The time has come for all government employees to fly the least expensive way possible. They're flying on my (income tax + other taxes) tab. Unless everyone is entitled to fly business class, then let's save the section for those who are paying their own way.

The Israeli government in general and specifically the Holocaust restitution fund has dragged its feet for too long. The status of the remaining survivors is dire, they need to live their final years in dignity and not in dire poverty and shame. It seems that official bodies are waiting for them to die and then pocketing the money for themselves. Israeli history seems full of discrimination and insensitivity towards the scars and concerns of the holocaust survivors. The time is long overdue to reverse the trend and give them their dignity.

Primary colours

With the Israeli elections two months away--February 10, 2009--it's party primary season. The three larger (secular) parties, Kadima, Labour, Likud and Mertez scheduled their primaries for early December. The other parties, the religious ones -- Shas, UTJ -- have their Rabbis pick them (for ritual purity perhaps?) and a number of right-wing parties have their central committee (Bayit Hayehudi) pick their list or the Chair like Yisrael Beytenu picks his list (trusted followers?).

According to recent polls as reported in The Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, Likud is leading with between 31-36 seats (depending on the poll you rely upon), Kadima 24-27 and Labour around 12 seats.

Every party will put the best face on their primary/internal election results. Labour which held their delayed -- the computers crushed so they pushed the elections off a couple of days -- last Thursday (4 November) expressed their satisfaction that their list is a winner, even if others view as it as an acceptance of being an opposition party.

Likud also had computer problems which forced it to keep its polls open another three hours, until 1:00 Wednesday the 9th. Once its results were published, the debate began on the "Feiglin Effect" as Moshe Feiglin the "Jewish Leadership" faction chair received the 20th place and his followers also received other 'realistic' places on the list. On one hand, he's viewed as a right wing reactionary who seeks to dispose the (Palestinian) Arab population in Israel and destroy the Palestinian Authority/Gaza, a fascist. Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to push him off the list by having the regional representatives fill the 21-37 slots and women fill the 10 and 20 slots. If his advisers convince the party's election council to accept its appeal, Feiglin will mus likely not receive a seat in the next Knesset. Personally, it's all politics, which could back fire on Likud and Netanyahu. Currently, despite Netanyahu's best efforts (which only gave Feiglin great attention and success/legitimacy) and Feiglin's place on the list, Likud has increased its popularity.

Next up, on Sunday the 14th is Meretz followed on the 17th with Kadima primaries. They will be having a paper ballot.

Reading the riot act

The events of the last several days in Hevron surrounding the evacuation of the "House of Peace/Contention" (pick your name) when settlers--those directly associated with the settlement and their supporters--many of them religiously observant attacked not only government officials (the border police and the army) but also the local Palestinian population was a hilul hashem [a desecration of god's name]. The riot that ensued gives Israel a bad name among the world and religious Judaism a bad name among secular Israelis and other Jews.

Such behavior cannot be condoned, either by the government and especially by the religious leadership. The Prime Minister and the Israeli Defence establishment were explicit in his condemnation of the act. The Rabbinic leadership less so, if at all.

As much as it may be true that youth have a propensity to act out and disregard the advise of their elders (and Rabbis), I'm not sure that the violence is unavoidable as suggested by Rabbi Avinoam Horowitz of the Yeshiva High School of Kiryat Arba (YATKA).

Someone, an (irresponsible) adult, was assiting them. Focus has been placed upon Daniella Weiss, who Ephriam Sneh have called for her arrest and Dani Golan the head of the Council of Jewish Communities of Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip has demanded that she be removed from the area.

No matter the excuses offered for the underlying causes of the the rampage that ensued -- the residual effects of the evacuation of Gush Katif, general government policy, etc. -- it's clear to me that the social mores and the national religious religious educational frameworks are at the core. The lack of respect for the State of Israel and its democratic institutions seems to have been ingrained in the national religious/settler educational system. From parents, teachers and especially Rabbis, the messianism and xenophobia (aka anti-Arab and Palestinian prejudices) have become de rigueur. Respect for the other--Jew included--is no longer valued. Extremism has become the norm rather than the exception.

As much as I want to believe it, I can't share the words of an anonymous Rabbi:

Daniella Weiss and her extremist methods turned out to be a complete failure, ... The evacuation of Beit Hashalom was quicker than even one house in Gush Katif, which proves the futility of violence. Hopefully now people will be more willing to listen to a more moderate voice.

The voice of moderation will only be heard once "The Riot Act" is read and enforced by the those who claim leadership, and those who either encourage or publicly condone such extremist behavior are called on it and forced to answer, preferably in court, for their behavior.