Right on or write off?

This evening [Thursday 25.10.2012] the Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu parties announced they have unified and will run as one list in the upcoming Israeli elections.

Is this the start of electoral reform--the start of creating large political blocs to govern Israel--or an act of desperation by either or both parties?

On one hand, there is an expectation that the merger will lead to sizable majority of seats. As Jonathan Liss in Haaretz writes:

Yisrael Beiteinu officials estimate that the unification should earn them at least 50 mandates in the upcoming election, and allow the new party to create a strong, stable government, without having to cater to other parties demands in exchange for votes.

That part sounds good. An end to cobbling together smaller parties--each exacting its ransom (extortion) to join the government--to reach a majority government.

On the other hand, the idea that two large egos, Netanyahu and Lieberman, who has sparred with each other for the last decade or two to see who is the real leader of "The Right" will actually commit to working together for the next few months (of the campaign) never mind the next four years (the term of office). My sense is someone sees this as just another battle of a larger war for supremacy. The whole exercise implode creating a bigger mess than currently exists. 

This could also create a renewed opportunity for the other parties especially for the not-right wing parties. 

It's a big gambit, as Chami Shalev discusses. 

According to press reports, Netanyahu is relying on public opinion polls that promise his joint list with Lieberman between 40-45 Knesset seats, within the same range as the 42 seats currently held by the Likud and Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu combined. Such a result would ensure that the Likud-Beiteinu list, as it is now called, will be the biggest in the next Knesset and that Netanyahu will be the certain candidate to form the next coalition.

But Netanyahu should know better than most that political polling of hypothetical situations is notoriously unreliable, because it fails to take into account the influence of the new entities on the other actors in the arena. By desperately seeking a master stroke that would counter Likud’s slide in the polls, Netanyahu may have forgotten what sociologist Robert K Merton described as the “imperious immediacy of interest” from which the law of unintended consequence ensues.

• Will the Russian supporters of Yisrael Beiteinu shift their votes to Likud or find another olim [immigrant] party to support?
• Will traditional North African voters, hitherto the bedrock of Likud support, remain loyal to the Netanyahu-Lieberman combo – or will they cry “the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming” and flock to Shas and to its old-new icon, Aryeh Deri?
• What about the bloc of so-called “Feiglinim”, the right-wing settlers in the Likud who had been poised for a power grab in the upcoming Likud primaries and who have now been outflanked by Lieberman? Will they stay or will they go further to the right?
• How will the last vestiges of the old Likud guard, who still swear by the rule of law and adhere to what is known as “Jabotinskyite majesty” - people such as Michael Eitan, Dan Meridor and even Benny Begin – how will they react to having someone like Lieberman, whom they have all castigated at one time or another, catapulted to the top?  Perhaps they will join forces and add legitimacy to the new Olmert or Livni led center?
• Will this union galvanize despondent center-left voters, hitherto resigned to their bloc’s inevitable defeat in the upcoming elections, and increase pressures on former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and/or former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to return to politics in order to rally and unite the troops and lead the charge against the Lieberman-led right?

Then, will Lieberman's presence serve as a distraction or thorn to outsiders and those trying to spin Israel in a positive light? My sense is that Lieberman's public persona is problematic. While being direct and controversial helps generate press and attention to your political agenda, it's not helpful when dealing with diplomacy and an already hostile foreign press/media.

Lastly, 

with Lieberman involved, one must always consider a Machiavellian subplot: Lieberman, after all, wants to be prime minister. He knows it, Netanyahu knows it, and they both know that each other knows it. Netanyahu may have embraced Lieberman in order to neutralize the possibility that the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu might decide to bolt the right and join a centrist coalition after the upcoming elections. Lieberman’s reasoning, in such a scenario, was supposed to be that once Netanyahu is firmly ensconced in the opposition, it would be easier for Lieberman to make his move and take over as leader of the right wing.

But what if Lieberman, a political animal with uncanny instincts, knows full well that Netanyahu is making a fatal mistake? In such a scenario, Netanyahu will lose the elections and probably leave politics, and Lieberman will be there, conveniently anointed and superbly placed, on time and exactly as planned.

I, too, don't trust Lieberman, so while the implications of this union will take time to play out and over the next days and weeks we'll learn more of how this came about, I haven't been convinced to vote for them.

The cards have yet to be fully dealt.

Elections 2013

Yesterday the Knesset approved the upcoming Israeli elections for 22 January 2013. Israel is going to the polls to--from what's the conventional media wisdom--reconfirm the current government alignment. PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party is expected to garner the most votes (and seats) with other right-wing parties following in their wake. While the actual membership of coalition remains a question, the general tenor of the government is not. Another right-of-centre government is expected to be (re)formed. Not sure if that's good news (continuity) or bad (exasperating the current problems of international isolation, Iran, the Israeli-American rift, lack of peace negotiations with the Palestinians/Arabs).

One issue requiring immediate attention is whether convicted criminals may run in the election. Specifically what about Aryeh Deri (Shas and served prison time for corruption) and Ehud Olmert (Kadima, breech of trust and currently being tried for bribery, but wasn't found to have committed moral turpitude)? Never a fan of Olmert, I believe it's in his best interest to stay out. Despite all the hype, he won't win by himself, nor  convince others to run under his banner. He's 'damaged goods' and the nostalgia,  assuming it's real, for his rule is but a mirage. Deri, on the other hand, has done his time, both in jail and waiting in the wings for his moral turpitude penalty to expire, so if he can pass the muster of the political bosses of Shas--actually it's just the BIG boss R' Ovadia Yosef--he could be on the ticket. Besides, I think most of the Knesset is filled with unconvicted crooks. At least Deri, despite his own protests, won't have to hide his true colours. I also think he can contribute to the political discourse in the Knesset and government.

Unfortunately, because of the way the elections are run, via party lists to be voted as a whole, there's little true public input or comment on individual candidates. Every member of Knesset owes their loyalty to either the party (if they have primaries) or the leader/central committee (who determines the list and rank order on it). The public is merely expected (invited may be more precise) to vote for their list. For me it makes the voting process an exercise in 'minimal damage control'--which party is the least objectionable and most benign for me (and by extension the country). Because of structural issues, the current discussion is a distraction and red herring.

What result do I want? A contactable government of only non-religious large parties who will serve for a set period to reform the electoral process--create more public (as opposed to party) accountability of MKs (members of Knesset)-- and deal with the military issues specifically (a) creating full national service for all citizens (army or civilian service) regardless of religious, national, gender or ethnic identity/affiliation and (b) the Iranian nuclear threat. Once that's done, I'd be happy to either go back to the polls under the new arrangement or even have a different coalition government formed to address the other issues (knowing that after a short time a crisis will be created to provoke a general election).

What will be get? SOS--same old sh... Maybe a party or two will change but, the coalition will be the same group of parties engaging in the same games. The "tough budget" entailing new taxes and spending cuts will not be any easier to push through--the stated reason/cause for the election--nor palpable to the general public.

The process leaves me depressed and confused. Pass me the clothes pins for my nose.

Fire sale

Last Sunday's Haaretz [29.01] had a front page story how the upcoming State Controller's Report into the Carmel Fire of December 2010 would call for the removal of two cabinet ministers, Yuval Steinmetz (Finance) and Eli Yishai (Interior), for their failure to prevent the excess damage the fire caused. Others are cited as having some responsibility, but only these two are singled out as expected to resign their position. Supposedly, they may be transferred to a different ministry/assignment.

The article in explaining Micha Lindenstruass's (the State Controller) rationale for ministerial responsibility as:

public servants can expect personal sanctions if they break the law, act maliciously, with complete indifference, negligently or close their eyes. The greater the failure of the public servant, the greater the demand for personal responsibility

He applied this to Yishai by arguing that:

The report will apparently say that Yishai's key error was in defining the state of fire preparedness as "catastrophic" in his own words, but not considering the danger to human life as a reason to threaten to resign from the cabinet if his demands to fund the Fire and Rescue Services were not met.
Lindenstrauss also apparently deems Yishai responsible for not having money within the Interior Ministry's budget moved to the firefighting service.

And to Steinmetz:

that the finance minister exceeded his authority and contravened cabinet decisions by preventing funding from reaching the Fire and Rescue Services by conditioning that funding on service reforms.

Let me see, he claims that the Finance Minister in demanding service reforms in an effort to ensure a more efficient and effective fire fighting service was negligent? That the Interior Minister didn't transfer adequate funds also acted irresponsibly?

It's true that the disaster was preventable. The Fire and Rescue Services could have been better funded.There could have, should have, been better communication and coordination between the various public safety bodies. However, all the mistakes were neither created nor enacted on the current government's watch. It was the result of long-term planning (sic.) of previous governments and the general civil service cultural battles.

Luckily, the comptroller's critique of elected officials, as opposed to public servants (bureaucrats), is not legally binding. His suggestion is a ludicrous one.

It has generated media coverage. Hopefully, that will prevent another disaster. It shouldn't come by having some officials fall on the sword needlessly. That suggestion misses the point of the review.

An overstuffed cabinet

--Cleaning out my drafts--

Yesterday (3 Jan 2009) the new Government of Israel was introduced and formally sworn in. Benjamin Netanyahu is now officially the Prime Minister. His government of 71 people has a cabinet of 39--30 Ministers and (another) 7 Deputy Ministers--the largest in Israeli history. All the large parties--Likud (15 positions from 27 seats), Labour (5 from 13), Israel Beiteinu (5 from 15), Habayit Hayehudi (1 from 3), Shas (4 from 11), --have representation at the, now enlarged, cabinet table. Ynet has the full list and Haaretz has their pictures.

In these difficult economic times, I agree with Tzippi Livni's comment that such a large--gargantuan--government is misplaced.

The honorable prime minister-designate, the skinny man who is getting skinnier every day," Livni said, alluding to Netanyahu's feted metaphor of the private sector struggling to support the wasteful public sector. "On this thin man's shoulders you have now dumped this bloated government, filled with ministers of nothing, deputy ministers of nothings, and all sorts of other ridiculous titles," she said.

"A big and lavish cabinet is wrong at a time of economic constraints," said Livni, adding that "the public will have to carry the enormous weight of a bloated cabinet."

While her speech was certainly bitter and acerbic and many may claim it was an act of sour grapes, it was hard hitting and good to see that she actually has some fire in that belly. Whether it will help her maintain her political standing within Kadima and the country as a whole, only time will tell.

In response to her attack, Ehud Barak was quoted as saying her comments are

embarrassing statements... proof of her losing control." "The extent of her frustration is not a justification to say these things in the name of a 'more ethical politics,'" Barak's associates said.

"Ms. Livni should put her own house in order, and scrutinize the conduct of Kadima members, before giving lessons to others."

end for now

It's clearly right, but is it good?

I am disappointed but not surprised with the results of yesterday's election.

Today's unofficial results, with 100% of the polls reporting but still waiting for the publication of the official results, show that Kadima and Tzippi Livni won the largest number of seats, the right-wing political parties won a majority of the seats in the Knesset. It appears that Bibi Netanyahu will be the next PM.

The media reports the following:

Right
Likud 21%/27 seats
Yisrael Beitenu 12/15
National Union 3/4
HaBayet Hayehudi 3/3
49 seats

Religious
Shas 9/11
UTJ 4/5
16 seats

Centre
Kadima 23/28
28 seats

Left
Labour 10/13
Meretz 3/3
16 seats

Arab Parties
UAL/Ta'al 4/4
Hadash 3/4
Balad 3/3
11 seats

The winners and losers

Winners:

1. The right-wing parties in general and Avigdor Lieberman in particular who is the "king-maker" as complicated as that role may be for him.
2. Tzippi Livni who fought off oblivion by actually leading Kadima to garner the largest number of seats.
3. Bibi Netanyahu who despite loosing the popular vote has the sufficient political backing to form the next government.
4. Bayit Hayehudi (NRP) who beat the predictions that they would only eek into the Knesset.

Losers:

1. All the parties, mostly from the left, who lost seats.
2. The Labour party who fell to 4th place and the opposition. (Though in the long run, it might actually work to its benefit.)
3. Political parties who focused on domestic issues with no comment on exsternal ones (i.e. the Arab-Israeli conflicts).
4. The Israeli public who, once again, may find itself going back to the polls in another 18 months.

For me personally, I was deeply disappointed that the Green Movement-Meimad only garnered 23,000 votes or 1%. With a mandate valued at around 25,000 and the voting threshold at 2% of the valid votes, all it's ballots are considered invalid and amount to a non-vote--a "wasted vote."

What does this mean?

As the Jerusalem Post reports, it's all in the hands of Leiberman and Yisrael Beitenu (which for all intents and purposes are the same, since Lieberman hand picks the party list). He remains valuable for all--to strengthen the rightist bloc, to bridge Kadima with the left-wing--but, several complications remain: (a) he needs to temper his demand for a senior cabinet post as I doubt anyone will agree to make him Defence Minister (Finance? maybe), (b) he's detested by Meretz (who's publicly said it would not sit with him), the Arab parties and the religious parties, and (c) he has the reputation of being fickle--joining an unexpected government and then unexpectedly bolting the government--creating uncertainty and instability.

Though the party had apparently won just 15 seats, half that of the Likud's 28 and Kadima's 30, the distribution of results makes any stable government very difficult.

In principle, party chief Avigdor Lieberman can comfortably join a center-left coalition, since his party does not oppose a Palestinian state and his primary voting bloc demands a social agenda closer to that of the Left.

But such a coalition would place Lieberman together with the same Arab parties whose leadership bore the brunt of Israel Beiteinu's campaign attacks over "disloyalty" to the state.

Without the 10 seats won by the three Arab parties, the left-wing coalition would shrink to a narrow 62 and place Israel Beiteinu in an unlikely partnership with the social-democratic Meretz, a situation that party's leaders are unlikely to countenance.

As the possibility for a strong ideologically consistent bloc wanes, Israel Beiteinu looks set to become the linchpin for a national unity government. A Likud-Kadima coalition would probably require an agreement of rotation in the premiership as one party - Kadima - has apparently emerged larger, but at the head of a smaller ideological bloc.

Even so, such a coalition would amount to just 58 seats, requiring a stable third partner. Lieberman may be the most attractive partner in such a coalition, as his domestic demands, including civil unions in lieu of marriage and governmental reform, would be palatable to the larger parties.

At the same time, his ability to make extravagant demands, such as the Defense portfolio, would be limited by the ease with which the two larger parties could replace him with the haredim or even the four-to-five seat Meretz.

Haaretz also agrees with the Post's assessment though it strongly suggests that Lieberman will join a right-wing government

Lieberman said that his party will prefer to join a national right-wing government, hinting that he would prefer joining forces with Netanyahu over Livni. "We always said that this is the government we want, and this is the way our hearts lean," he stressed.

Lieberman, who spoke with Kadima and Likud leaders on Monday, added that he does not intend to make any hasty decisions. "Tomorrow the faction will convene, we will appoint a negotiations team and we will make decisions," Lieberman said. "In this election, we set the agenda," he went on to say. "This is our biggest achievement, beyond any other achievement. Yisrael Beiteinu defined what the correct agenda is and what the central issue is "loyalty."

So it's now a waiting game. Waiting for the publication of the official results (scheduled for next Thursday 19.Feb), so the President (Shimon Peres) may begin determining who to invite to form the next government. Waiting for Lieberman to decide who he'll support/recommend to be PM. Then, waiting for the horse trading to create the new coalition government.

Whatever happens, and I suspect that it'll be a rightest government rather than some form of national unity government with all three large parties and a rotating PM between Livni and Netanyahu, the country and its political system remains impotent and broken. Despite some calls for a merger of Kadima and Labour, the country remains split and undecided as to how the country needs to be governed.

I also suspect that Shas and possibly also UTJ will be invited to join the coalition which will cost the country too much financially and further stifle modernizing the country--enacting civil marriage and better 'control' over the Rabbinic court system, as well as pushing a greener Israel.
Whatever government is created, no one from the public will be asked to ratify it but, will be left to cover its costs and bills.

While I recognize that the public has spoken and that it doesn't really speak to me, it will speak for me and, thus, it deserves my respect. Unfortunately, I can't see the new government doing much good. Its policies will be regressive--socially and economically as well as relating to the rest of the world--and will set the country back.

Primary Colors -- II

With last night's Kadima party's primary, the primary season I think is now over. The rest of the parties will announce their lists shortly.

According to recent poll published in Haaretz, the gap between Kadima and Likud is narrowing. Not explained is if this is due to the finalizing of the lists, the loss of the elan of Likud/Netanyahu, the positive impression of Tzippi Livni from a joint appearance of all three leaders at a business forum earlier this week, or if it's really significant. My own sense is that people are dissatisfied with the entire political system [see the feedback] and especially with the leaders of the major parties. I expect a low turnout (<40%) on election day and those who actually come to the polls will either be die hard party people or those who feel an obligation to vote as a civic duty (mostly Western people) and will hold their nose to vote for the least worst option -- which one is less of a crook/incompetent fool--and will do the least damage to Israel.

Lost in most of the bickering and cross incrimination's is a real discussion of what kind of country people want, were we want to be and how we can best get there. This morning on Reshet B, on Karen Noybach's "Daily Agenda" program, sought to have a discussion about party advertising campaign and the need to modernize it, only to have it degenerate into a partisan bickering match about how only their party will "'rescue" Israel. It wasn't time that some politician hijacked a discussion to make a partisan point at the expense of thoughtful informative discussion.

Primary colours

With the Israeli elections two months away--February 10, 2009--it's party primary season. The three larger (secular) parties, Kadima, Labour, Likud and Mertez scheduled their primaries for early December. The other parties, the religious ones -- Shas, UTJ -- have their Rabbis pick them (for ritual purity perhaps?) and a number of right-wing parties have their central committee (Bayit Hayehudi) pick their list or the Chair like Yisrael Beytenu picks his list (trusted followers?).

According to recent polls as reported in The Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, Likud is leading with between 31-36 seats (depending on the poll you rely upon), Kadima 24-27 and Labour around 12 seats.

Every party will put the best face on their primary/internal election results. Labour which held their delayed -- the computers crushed so they pushed the elections off a couple of days -- last Thursday (4 November) expressed their satisfaction that their list is a winner, even if others view as it as an acceptance of being an opposition party.

Likud also had computer problems which forced it to keep its polls open another three hours, until 1:00 Wednesday the 9th. Once its results were published, the debate began on the "Feiglin Effect" as Moshe Feiglin the "Jewish Leadership" faction chair received the 20th place and his followers also received other 'realistic' places on the list. On one hand, he's viewed as a right wing reactionary who seeks to dispose the (Palestinian) Arab population in Israel and destroy the Palestinian Authority/Gaza, a fascist. Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to push him off the list by having the regional representatives fill the 21-37 slots and women fill the 10 and 20 slots. If his advisers convince the party's election council to accept its appeal, Feiglin will mus likely not receive a seat in the next Knesset. Personally, it's all politics, which could back fire on Likud and Netanyahu. Currently, despite Netanyahu's best efforts (which only gave Feiglin great attention and success/legitimacy) and Feiglin's place on the list, Likud has increased its popularity.

Next up, on Sunday the 14th is Meretz followed on the 17th with Kadima primaries. They will be having a paper ballot.