Monday, January 01, 2007

Saddam hung to dry

The hanging of Saddam Hussein last Saturday morning may have been a momentous occasion, however, I'm still not sure it was a positive step for Iraq, the region as a whole, or the world. What was the rush to kill (execute) Saddam Hussein? His death spells the end to all of his court trails and the possibility of having all the actors -- including Saddam -- of the 30 year reign of terror held accountable for their actions and involvement (by having them blame Saddam for every thing). Several questions remain:

1. Iraq
  • Has all the information about Saddam's personal role been made public?
  • Does his death create obstacles/problems for effectively continuing with all public trails of other government/military figures?
  • Is his death an opportunity for a cessation of sectarian violence or the catalyst for increasing it?
  • Will this strengthen the Malaki government or further weaken it?
  • How will Iraq deal with it? Is this the beginning of the end (or Iraq) or the start of building a stable Iraq?

2. US

  • Is his death enough for GW Bush to declare victory and start an immediate pull back (at minimum) or full withdrawal of US forces from Iraq?
  • Does this enhance (or detract) from GWB's standing in America and the rationale for invading Iraq?
  • How will the military situation change because of this?
  • Does this advance American interests and international standing or, is it another thing to add to the (growing) list of American foreign policy blunders?

3. The region

  • How does this death effect the influence of other regional players, especially Syria and Iran? What about Saudi Arabia?
  • Is this a blow or a boon to Islamic terrorist/jihadi groups, especially Al Qada?
  • How does this affect the Lebanon and the Arab (Palestinian)-Israeli conflicts?
  • Is this a setback or an advance for democratization?

4. The world

  • Is this a blow or a boon for international terrorism and Islamic jihadism and sectarianism?
  • Does this provide a window of opportunity to internationalize the conflict; i.e. greater involvement for the U.N. and other international organizations?

Personally, I'm not that sanguine that his death will create the necessary conditions for "solving", nevermind, stabilizing the situation to let the Iraqis run their country by themselves. The country is too weak to withstand all the foreign interests seeking to influence Iraqi policy and life. The US administration's poor post-war planning -- immediate and otherwise -- allowed chaos and other foreign influences to take hold that the civil war will be a fact of life for the near term (at least 2-3 years). Unless the US, and particularly GWB, announces a realistic and timely (close to immediate) timetable for the removal of their troops from Iraq, the situation will get worse before it gets better.

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