I'm not sure if this good or bad news--for Israel, the Likud Party and Netanyahu, the Labour Party and Ehud Barak, Ofer Eini (the Chair of the Histadrut [Workers' Organization], the Kadima Party and Tzippi Livni. Does a 66 seat government of four parties mean a more stable government, one that will last the four year term, or a short-term bandage solution and they'll be another set of elections in less than a year?
The best part of forming a new government, is that the old one will resign. Olmert will vacate the PM residence and have his day in court which could make his search for a new residence easier if he's sent to jail.
As Mazal Mualem reports in Haaretz , the Labour vote was a contentious one. While 78% of the committee members voted, only 54% voted in favour of joining the government. It's still possible that the 'dissenters' would break away from the party. If that happens, it'll be the death knell for the party. Then, there's the issue that initially Barak was adamant that the Labour voter wanted them to sit in the opposition, and then he flip-flopped to now suggest ahead of the vote:
Ahead of the vote, Barak took the stand and in an impassioned speech said "we are responsible for the Labor Party, but we also have a responsibility to the state of Israel, to peace, to security. We don't have a back-up country, Yitzhak Rabin said that, and it is still true."
"Labor voters want to see us in the government, they want to see us there because we don't have a spare country".
What makes the issue even more incredible is that Netanyahu made Labour [read Barak] an offer he couldn't refuse.
For its 13 seats, Labour was offered/given:
- five cabinet posts, including two of the most senior - Defense Minister and Trade and Industry Minister - and another two deputy ministerial positions.
- in the socio-economic area (the bone for Ofer Eini)
there's NIS 100 million for retraining people for different professions, NIS 200 million for funding day and afternoon care for working women's children, investment in factories and a commitment not to cut salaries in the public sector. Furthermore, the deal promises a gradual hike in benefits for pensioners over the coming three years totaling NIS 950 million (this subject actually appeared in a similar deal between Labor and Kadima last year that was never signed), and a series of other agreements.
The deal's masterpiece is the creation of a forum that the government, employers and the Histadrut will all attend and will have the status of an advisor to the prime minister.
The great deal for Labour means that Likud and its leaders--those expecting a high level cabinet post--will pay the price. Will this mean another round of Bibi alienating his own party and core constituency?
The sense I have is that Bibi thinks people voted for him to be the PM (a la the direct elections for PM of 1996 [Bibi > Peres] and 1998 [Barak > Bibi]) with the result that he formed a government by giving away the store to the other parties while leaving his party out in the cold (not, that Likud had a large number of seats to speak about). The fact of the matter is that Kadima actually polled a larger number of seats [28] to Likud's 27.
In other news, here's what the other coalition partners are expected to receive.
First, let's deal with Shas.
On Monday, a coalition agreement was signed (after an informal agreement was made earlier this year which prevented Tzippi Livni from forming a government and forcing an election) which gives Shas
- four portfolios in the new government.
Party chief Eli Yishai will become interior minister and deputy prime minister, MK Ariel Atias will become minister of housing, Yitzhak Cohen will receive the new government's religion portfolio and Meshulam Nahari will become a minister-without-portfolio in the Prime Minister's Office.
- Shas was also promised an increase of NIS 1.4 billion in child welfare payments over the next three years.
- billions of shekels to yeshivas, while depriving Bedouin families of child allowances.
- a compromise on the ultra-Orthodox party's demand for the education portfolio and on the appointment of an exclusive minister for ultra-Orthodox education in the next government.
Still to determined are the places for Bayit Hayehudi (NRP), National Union/Ichud Haleumi and UTJ. Negotiations continue with all three parties.
Underlying the stability of the government is how it deals with religion-state affairs. Issues like civil union, conversion are flash points for both the religious and secular parties. While the UTJ has agreed to civil unions, they are only willing to have it for non-Jewish couples. There's no movement regarding conversions. I'm not sure how the "Jewish" (if only in their own mind) voters for Leiberman--former USSR--and Ethiopian feel about this. Then there are non-Orthodox and secular Jews who feel strongly about not relying on the Rabbinate to approve or perform their weddings/marriages.
Finally, there's Tzippi Livni and Kadima. Did she miss her chance to create a true national unity government, by holding out for a PM rotation? Will she be able to build up the party in opposition enough to actually win the next election? If there's an election in the next year, she may be able to have another shot at becoming PM. If the government lasts the four years, she may have missed the boat.
In terms of Israel, I continue to believe that the cobbled together coalition with smaller parties, is bad for Israel. The voter threshold needs to be increased and some form of direct elections for members of Knesset are needed. As long as sectarian parties are part of the government, any meaningful reform isn't going to happen.
Then there's the issue of the size of the cabinet. Instead of streamlining and reducing the number of cabinet members, it looks like it'll be another bloated and overcrowded cabinet table. While it's inefficient in the best of times, in an economic slowdown, monies would be better spent on improving the lot of ALL Israelis, it'll instead be dedicated, really wasted, in providing "the perks of office" to a bunch of politicians (many of whom, are less than qualified to serve as anything in government). Oh well...
Too bad.
Stay tuned for further developments.
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