The day before ...

As it turns out, today—Tu BeShevat (the new years for trees)—among other things is the anniversary of the first Knesset meeting in its own building (13.3.1950) in the "Beit Froumine" building on King George Street in Jerusalem. (Today it's the Jerusalem Rabbinical Court and before that the Ministry of Tourism.) It's an opportune time to reflect on tomorrow's elections for the 18th Knesset.

To carry the metaphor further. The seeds planted up until today, will start to bear its fruit tomorrow. (Today also has a personal twist. It's my paternal grandfather's 39th yahrzeit and would have been my Dad's 77th birthday. Both serve as my roots and primordial seed.)

Conventional wisdom is that Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi) and the Likud party will form the next government. His coalition government will be right of center—Likud, Israel Beiteinu (Avigdor Leiberman), HaBayit HaYehudi [the new NRP], and the National Union. Together they're predicted to have around 68 seats.

What I don't want is a "wall-to-wall" coalition. The more parties included the higher the price exacted for their support, as each party demands its 'ransom'. This is especially true for the haredi (ultra-orthodox) parties who want money for their educational systems—which operate outside of meaningful (if at all) government supervision—and their pet projects. It also applies to other narrow special interests groups too. The time has come for the national interests to trump special interests. Money should be devoted to strengthening the general Israeli infrastructure; upgrading the public school systems—from nursery through graduate education, creating a real and meaningful (helpful) social welfare net, public transportation and better green technology from better solid waste management to green (renewable) energy and technology.

There’s also a real place for a real opposition. One that will offer viable policy and governing (legislation and priorities) alternatives for public consideration, hold the government accountable for its policies and make the Knesset an actual governing body instead of a rubber stamp for the government/cabinet decisions.

The polls have consistently shown Likud leading the race. However, their lead has been cut from a high of projected 35 seats to something closer to 27. In large part by Avigdor Leiberman coming from the hard right especially among the teen/younger voters and also by Tzippi Livni and the Kadima party attempting to come from the left (center). It also doesn't hurt—though I'm not it's really that much of a help considering how hated he is by most of the country (and me!)--that Ehud Olmert finally endorsed Tzippi Livni for Prime Minister yesterday.

So, whoever wins the plurality of the seats, the challenge will be to create a viable and stable coalition government.

Complicating matters is that 33(!) parties—each with their own electoral symbol (from one to three letters)—are running for the 120 seats. The Jerusalem Post created a guide for the voter on Friday. Haaretz discussed the smaller fringe parties on Sunday. Then there the medium sized parties who'll certainly get enough votes (>2.5% of valid ballots cast) to get a few seats and expect to be part of the government—if the governing party will pay their asking price.

I continue to believe that Shas who (a) refused to have a female PM and (b) demanded too high a price--which they cloaked in a demand for higher family (children) allowances, caused the current election. (And, then had the hutzpa to suggest that Livni forced the election and doesn't care about families.)

As it turns out, the party I'm supporting, the Green Movement-Meimad, was included as a viable party (i.e. potential for getting a couple of seats) in the election in the Post article, despite not being included on any the poll results. Ya.

Polls seem to skew towards already existing parties and the larger parties. I received a computer-generated phone call asking me which I supported/will vote for. After mentioning the "usual suspects", it stopped and didn't even have an option for "other". I'm also not sure that polls take into account the undecided or not voting blocs into their projected results. Taking the latter in, which is frequently larger than the 'margin of error', presents a clearer picture of the probabilities and might even encourage those on the fence to decide vote (and for whom). Or... maybe that's too complicated for people.

As much as I would like to see a smaller number of parties contesting Israeli elections, I’m not sure the larger parties or the general Israeli polity/population seems willing or able to commit to that.

• The voting threshold needs to be raised to close to 5%, from its current 2 2.5% level, coupled with
• Some form of direct elections are needed, either on a regional basis or ‘traditional’ electoral riding/constituencies, to be augmented by ‘proportional representation’ by parties.

Unfortunately, the three larger parties—Kadima, Labour and Likud—refuse to use their collective strength (a majority of the Knesset seats) to enact such a bill. Maybe they’re afraid of offending the smaller, usually ‘balance of power’ parties and they won’t support them in the future. It’s baseless on several counts:

1. Only the small fringe parties, see the list below) would be excluded from the Knesset, as they are already.
2. The collective weight of the big three ensures its passage.
3. Parties with large scale either geographic concentrations or national support will continue to be elected to the Knesset. At minimum to the party seats and those with a geographic concentration or bloc voting, should also win some direct elections.

As it stands now, the thirty-three parties can be divided into three groups: the large Blocs (Kadima, Labour and Likud) who serve as the senior government partner(s), the medium sized parties and the nuisance parties (those too small to pass the voter threshold). The combination is lethal and makes elections and voting confusing.

A. Large [3]

• Likud
• Labour
• Kadima

B. Medium [15]

(a) 7+ seats:
Left: Meretz, the Arab parties combined [UAL/Tal, Balad].
Right: Israel Beiteinu
Religious: UTJ (the Ashkenazi haredim), Shas (the Sefardi haredim)
(b) 3-7 seats:
Right: National Union, HaBayit Hayehudi [aka NRP]
Left: Hadash (communist and Arab-Jewish)
(c) on the cusp/2-3 seats (minimum number):
Green Movement-Meimad, the Green Party and (in this election) the Pensioners

C. Nuisance [18]

• Israel Hazaka (fighting organized crime)
• Zomet
• Or (secular)
• 2 parties committed to legalizing marijuana [Green Leaf and the Holocaust Survivors (who joined up with a Green Leaf break off)
• 2 parties committed to electoral reforms [Israelim and Responsibility]
• Da’am (Arab workers’)
• 3 Russian immigrant parties [Leader, Lev and Israeli Renewal]
• Tzabar (young people)
• Men’s Rights
• Power for Handicapped
• Lechem (on behalf the poor)
• Power of Money (anti-banks)
• Lazuz (corruption) and
• Brit Olam (joint Jewish-Arab committed to a Palestinian state, separation of religion and the state)

Complicating matters further is that seats are assigned according to the votes deemed “valid”. Voting either a “white slip” (no party), a defaced ballot or for party that fails to garner enough to pass the threshold is not considered a valid vote/ballot. To get around this, parties sign “overflow votes” agreements. Those two parties then have access to the others ‘extra’ votes (beyond the precise number required for each seat/mandate) which are used to increase the votes for the bigger party providing them with an additional seat, or two.

Now you know all this, are you now excited to see how it all turns out?

More later—tomorrow with my first impressions, later on when the official results are published (Paper ballot take a while for formal approval.)