It's clearly right, but is it good?

I am disappointed but not surprised with the results of yesterday's election.

Today's unofficial results, with 100% of the polls reporting but still waiting for the publication of the official results, show that Kadima and Tzippi Livni won the largest number of seats, the right-wing political parties won a majority of the seats in the Knesset. It appears that Bibi Netanyahu will be the next PM.

The media reports the following:

Right
Likud 21%/27 seats
Yisrael Beitenu 12/15
National Union 3/4
HaBayet Hayehudi 3/3
49 seats

Religious
Shas 9/11
UTJ 4/5
16 seats

Centre
Kadima 23/28
28 seats

Left
Labour 10/13
Meretz 3/3
16 seats

Arab Parties
UAL/Ta'al 4/4
Hadash 3/4
Balad 3/3
11 seats

The winners and losers

Winners:

1. The right-wing parties in general and Avigdor Lieberman in particular who is the "king-maker" as complicated as that role may be for him.
2. Tzippi Livni who fought off oblivion by actually leading Kadima to garner the largest number of seats.
3. Bibi Netanyahu who despite loosing the popular vote has the sufficient political backing to form the next government.
4. Bayit Hayehudi (NRP) who beat the predictions that they would only eek into the Knesset.

Losers:

1. All the parties, mostly from the left, who lost seats.
2. The Labour party who fell to 4th place and the opposition. (Though in the long run, it might actually work to its benefit.)
3. Political parties who focused on domestic issues with no comment on exsternal ones (i.e. the Arab-Israeli conflicts).
4. The Israeli public who, once again, may find itself going back to the polls in another 18 months.

For me personally, I was deeply disappointed that the Green Movement-Meimad only garnered 23,000 votes or 1%. With a mandate valued at around 25,000 and the voting threshold at 2% of the valid votes, all it's ballots are considered invalid and amount to a non-vote--a "wasted vote."

What does this mean?

As the Jerusalem Post reports, it's all in the hands of Leiberman and Yisrael Beitenu (which for all intents and purposes are the same, since Lieberman hand picks the party list). He remains valuable for all--to strengthen the rightist bloc, to bridge Kadima with the left-wing--but, several complications remain: (a) he needs to temper his demand for a senior cabinet post as I doubt anyone will agree to make him Defence Minister (Finance? maybe), (b) he's detested by Meretz (who's publicly said it would not sit with him), the Arab parties and the religious parties, and (c) he has the reputation of being fickle--joining an unexpected government and then unexpectedly bolting the government--creating uncertainty and instability.

Though the party had apparently won just 15 seats, half that of the Likud's 28 and Kadima's 30, the distribution of results makes any stable government very difficult.

In principle, party chief Avigdor Lieberman can comfortably join a center-left coalition, since his party does not oppose a Palestinian state and his primary voting bloc demands a social agenda closer to that of the Left.

But such a coalition would place Lieberman together with the same Arab parties whose leadership bore the brunt of Israel Beiteinu's campaign attacks over "disloyalty" to the state.

Without the 10 seats won by the three Arab parties, the left-wing coalition would shrink to a narrow 62 and place Israel Beiteinu in an unlikely partnership with the social-democratic Meretz, a situation that party's leaders are unlikely to countenance.

As the possibility for a strong ideologically consistent bloc wanes, Israel Beiteinu looks set to become the linchpin for a national unity government. A Likud-Kadima coalition would probably require an agreement of rotation in the premiership as one party - Kadima - has apparently emerged larger, but at the head of a smaller ideological bloc.

Even so, such a coalition would amount to just 58 seats, requiring a stable third partner. Lieberman may be the most attractive partner in such a coalition, as his domestic demands, including civil unions in lieu of marriage and governmental reform, would be palatable to the larger parties.

At the same time, his ability to make extravagant demands, such as the Defense portfolio, would be limited by the ease with which the two larger parties could replace him with the haredim or even the four-to-five seat Meretz.

Haaretz also agrees with the Post's assessment though it strongly suggests that Lieberman will join a right-wing government

Lieberman said that his party will prefer to join a national right-wing government, hinting that he would prefer joining forces with Netanyahu over Livni. "We always said that this is the government we want, and this is the way our hearts lean," he stressed.

Lieberman, who spoke with Kadima and Likud leaders on Monday, added that he does not intend to make any hasty decisions. "Tomorrow the faction will convene, we will appoint a negotiations team and we will make decisions," Lieberman said. "In this election, we set the agenda," he went on to say. "This is our biggest achievement, beyond any other achievement. Yisrael Beiteinu defined what the correct agenda is and what the central issue is "loyalty."

So it's now a waiting game. Waiting for the publication of the official results (scheduled for next Thursday 19.Feb), so the President (Shimon Peres) may begin determining who to invite to form the next government. Waiting for Lieberman to decide who he'll support/recommend to be PM. Then, waiting for the horse trading to create the new coalition government.

Whatever happens, and I suspect that it'll be a rightest government rather than some form of national unity government with all three large parties and a rotating PM between Livni and Netanyahu, the country and its political system remains impotent and broken. Despite some calls for a merger of Kadima and Labour, the country remains split and undecided as to how the country needs to be governed.

I also suspect that Shas and possibly also UTJ will be invited to join the coalition which will cost the country too much financially and further stifle modernizing the country--enacting civil marriage and better 'control' over the Rabbinic court system, as well as pushing a greener Israel.
Whatever government is created, no one from the public will be asked to ratify it but, will be left to cover its costs and bills.

While I recognize that the public has spoken and that it doesn't really speak to me, it will speak for me and, thus, it deserves my respect. Unfortunately, I can't see the new government doing much good. Its policies will be regressive--socially and economically as well as relating to the rest of the world--and will set the country back.